Ryanair cuts growth, warns of airline
Ryanair cuts its passenger forecast and keeps winter capacity flat, warning high fuel prices could cause less-protected European airlines to fail.
Ryanair has cut its passenger growth target and warned that some European airlines may not survive the coming winter. The Irish low-cost carrier issued the warning on September 2, 2026, as jet fuel prices soar.
The airline now expects to carry 214 million passengers in its 2027 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of 216 million. Ryanair said the reduction is intended to limit its exposure to fuel costs during the typically loss-making winter season.
Ryanair predicted that less well-hedged competitors could “struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this coming winter season” if high oil prices persist.
Fuel Price Protection
The warning comes as jet fuel trades at around $140 per barrel, more than double the price at which Ryanair locked in most of its own fuel. The airline has hedged about 80% of its fuel through March 2027 at roughly $67 per barrel. This leaves about one-fifth of its requirements exposed to current market prices.
Fuel hedging allows airlines to lock in prices in advance. Ryanair sees its relatively low locked-in fuel price as a competitive advantage over carriers that entered the current crisis with a larger share of their requirements unhedged.
Impact on Ryanair's Operations
Even with most of its fuel protected, Ryanair is feeling the impact. The carrier is reducing its full-year traffic forecast and limiting winter growth to reduce the amount of fuel it must buy at current prices. Ryanair estimates this move will reduce its winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million.
The sharp rise in fuel costs has followed the Iran war and disruption to global energy markets. The effect varies significantly between airlines depending on their hedging strategies.
The timing is particularly difficult for European airlines because November through March is generally the weakest part of the year. Airlines typically generate much of their profit during the busy summer travel season.
Passenger Demand and Future Fares
Ryanair’s decision does not reflect weakening passenger demand. The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% from a year earlier. Traffic during the April-to-October summer period is expected to grow by more than 5%.
Instead, the airline is deliberately restraining winter growth to reduce its exposure. Ryanair still expects to remain profitable for the full fiscal year, although earnings will likely fall below the record level of the previous year.
The carrier also warned that passengers could eventually feel the impact. If oil prices remain high into summer 2027, Ryanair expects short-haul fares across Europe to rise as carriers try to offset higher fuel costs.
